Home Prices Are Still Rising—but Buying Power Is More Complicated

Two recent national measures point in the same broad direction. FHFA's repeat-sales index increased 2.4% from August 2025 to August 2026, while the National Association of Realtors reported that the median existing-home sales price reached $417,500 in September, 1.3% above a year earlier.

Those national numbers are useful context, not a price forecast for a specific home. FHFA reported wide regional differences, and local results can vary by neighborhood, property condition, school district, and price tier.

If a $400,000 home rises 2.4% to $409,600, a 10% down payment increases by $960 and the loan balance rises by $8,640. The buyer may also face higher property taxes, insurance, and closing costs because several expenses are tied to the home's price or value.

A lower mortgage rate can offset part of that increase, but not always all of it. That is why buyers should model price and rate together rather than assuming one variable will cancel the other.

A national median is not the price of a typical home in every city. NAR's September regional medians ranged from $329,600 in the Midwest to $613,600 in the West. Even within a metro area, inventory and competition can be very different from one ZIP code to the next.

Set a monthly ownership limit before setting a maximum purchase price. Then test several combinations: a lower-priced home at today's quote, a slightly higher price with seller credits, and a conservative case with higher taxes or insurance. The scenario that preserves savings and monthly flexibility is usually more useful than the largest approval amount.

Prices are still rising nationally, but at a moderate and uneven pace. Buyers should use current local data and a complete monthly-cost estimate instead of assuming that a national trend determines what they can afford.